How stable are monetary policy rules: estimating the time-varying coefficients in monetary policy reaction function for the US

نویسندگان

  • P. A. V. B. Swamy
  • George S. Tavlas
  • I-Lok Chang
چکیده

We consider the relation among the federal funds rate and the Federal Reserve’s expectations for future inflation, the future gap between actual and potential output, and the future foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar. The coefficients of this relation are biased when relevant explanatory variables are omitted and/or when the included explanatory variables are measured with error. This presents obstacles to verifying the conditions under which monetary policies can be effective which, as we show, can only be stated in terms of the relation’s bias-free coefficients. To deal with this problem, we demonstrate how auxiliary variables, called concomitants, can be used to remove omitted-variable and measurement-error biases without assuming the “true” functional form of the relation to be known. Numerical algorithms for enacting this procedure are presented and an illustration is given using the U.S. quarterly data for 1960Q1-2000Q4.

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عنوان ژورنال:
  • Computational Statistics & Data Analysis

دوره 49  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2005